The Dems' delegate race

It's the morning after Super Tuesday. Do you know where your delegates are?

Estimates this morning by major news organizations of the total number of delegates Obama and Clinton are all over the place. Some give Obama the lead, others, Clinton. But does it matter at this point?

The earliest estimates I saw this morning (circa 6 a.m., Eastern Time) gave Clinton about an 80 delegate edge over Obama. That's not the big victory Clinton needs to gain more momentum, and, I think, any deleterious effects on Obama's momentum are minimal and reversible.

Obama may have an advantage going forward. Super Tuesday favored Clinton because she is better known than Obama (or, at least, voters think they know her better). It's not surprising that, at this stage in the campaign, she's going to do better when competing in many states at once rather than one or two. Yet the next four weeks, that is, until the March 4 primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont, there are fewer simultaneous primaries each week in vote-rich states. If South Carolina is a reliable guide, Obama may do better when he and Clinton are both focusing on a small handful of states holding simultaneous elections. (I'm assuming that, since Obama and Clinton were both already rather well known in New Hampshire, the former's Iowa victory did little to change the minds of voters who may made their minds long before.)

In short: Super Tuesday was a wash for the two Democratic candidates. Now the race begins in earnest.